Is It Good or Is It Bad? The Story of a Horse That Ran Away

While I was attending a productivity training in Singapore, a story was told by the General Manager of Nanyang Polytechnic International of Singapore that left an impact on how I view life in general, the story goes this way...

It is a wise tale that shows how you should never be too excited by good luck, and never too disheartened by a stroke of bad luck. Fortune has a habit of turning. (Source: http://www.storynory.com/2013/12/27/2014-chinese-year-of-the-horse-the-horse-that-ran-away/)

The Horse that Ran Away

In the north of China, beyond the Great Wall, the land is flat and grassy. The plains stretch out towards the Gobi Desert and Mongolia. It is a wonderful country for horses to graze, and in the past, many of the people who lived there were nomads and great horsemen.

A man called Sei Weng owned a single horse – but what a horse! She was a brown mare with a lucky white start on her forehead. Her eyes were bright and shone with understanding. In the morning, she was frisky, and liked to toss her head, and snort through her nostrils. But when she was saddled up, she was so gentle and obedient that a child could ride her with ease.

Naturally, Sei Weng was very proud of his horse and she was by far his most valuable and prized possession. Then one morning, when he came out of his house, he found that she was no longer tethered to the tree where he had left her. The rope was broken, and she was gone. Sei Weng scratched his head and wondered what had happened. Perhaps she had been stolen. Or perhaps she had run away.

Later that day he went to the market on foot.

“Is your horse lame?” Asked the women who sold vegetables?”

“No,” said Sei Weng. “When I woke up this morning, I found that she had disappeared.”

But he did not seem upset. In fact he wore the same calm expression of tranquility and acceptance as usual. The word soon got around that he had suffered a great misfortune.

“He is putting on a brave face,” said his neighbours to one another, “for he must be very grieved by his loss.”

The blacksmith said to Sei Weng, “You are doing well to smile, but we know that your heart is heavy, for this is the greatest piece of bad luck that could have befallen you.”

And Sei Weng replied, “Who can say that this was misfortune? For no one can tell how events will turn out.”

In fact, events proved him right. A month or so passed, and one morning when Sei Weng opened his door, he saw that his mare had returned and was standing beneath the tree where he had left her. When she spotted her master, she picked up her head and walked briskly towards him. She was not alone, for she had been joined by a brilliant white stallion.

Now the villagers were envious of Sei Weng, for he was the owner of not one, but two magnificent horses. The blacksmith gave him his heartfelt congratulations.

“There we all were feeling sorry for you, and it turns out that you are the luckiest man alive!”

Sei Weng shrugged his shoulders and replied, “Who can say what is good or bad fortune?”

The stallion was wild and needed to be broken in. Sei Weng was too old for that sort of work, but his son was eager to try and ride the new horse. He saddled up the stallion, climbed up on his back, but the horse was spirited and did not care to be ridden. He danced and arched his back, and Sei Weng’s son could not hold on for long. He was thrown to the ground, but his leg was caught in the stirrup and he broke it in two places.

Reports of the accident soon spread around the village and soon Sei Weng’s neighbours came to commiserate with him on this unfortunate turn of events. But Sei Weng smiled and simply said, “Who can say what is good or bad fortune?”

And sure enough, only two weeks later, the worst sort of news arrived in the village – war had broken out. All the parents were alarmed and cried out in fear for their sons’ lives, for they would have to go and fight. Soon after, the recruitment sergeant came to the village and all the young men had to leave for the army – all, that is, except for Sei Weng’s son, for his leg would take a long time to heal, and he could not yet walk. Now Sei Weng was truly the envy of the village; what magnificent good luck he had enjoyed, for his son would live to look after him in his old age.

As you can imagine, all he would comment was, “Who can say what is good or bad fortune?”

And that is the story of The Horse that Ran Away. The story is an example of an ancient Chinese philosophy known as Taoism. Taoists, like the man in the story, believe that you must live in harmony with nature and what it brings you. Part of that means accepting events as they come, and not becoming too excited about the highs or too down about the lows. Bertie says that life really is like that – sometimes the most difficult and stressful events can turn out to have a positive effect on your life in the long run – so do remember that next time you are having a bad day!

(Source: Richard, http://www.storynory.com/2013/12/27/2014-chinese-year-of-the-horse-the-horse-that-ran-away/)

Other versions of the Story:

The Story of the Taoist Farmer

Version 1:

This farmer had only one horse, and one day the horse ran away. The neighbors came to condole over his terrible loss. The farmer said, "What makes you think it is so terrible?"

A month later, the horse came home--this time bringing with her two beautiful wild horses. The neighbors became excited at the farmer's good fortune. Such lovely strong horses! The farmer said, "What makes you think this is good fortune?"

The farmer's son was thrown from one of the wild horses and broke his leg. All the neighbors were very distressed. Such bad luck! The farmer said, "What makes you think it is bad?"

A war came, and every able-bodied man was conscripted and sent into battle. Only the farmer's son, because he had a broken leg, remained. The neighbors congratulated the farmer. "What makes you think this is good?" said the farmer.

As told by Executive editor, Elise Hancock, in the Johns Hopkins Magazine, November 1993, page 2, in section entitled Editor's Note.

Version 2:

A man named Sei Weng owned a beautiful mare which was praised far and wide. One day this beautiful horse disappeared. The people of his village offered sympathy to Sei Weng for his great misfortune. Sei Weng said simply, "That's the way it is."

A few days later the lost mare returned, followed by a beautiful wild stallion. The village congratulated Sei Weng for his good fortune. He said, "That's the way it is."

Some time later, Sei Weng's only son, while riding the stallion, fell off and broke his leg. The village people once again expressed their sympathy at Sei Weng's misfortune. Sei Weng again said, "That's the way it is."

Soon thereafter, war broke out and all the young men of the village except Sei Weng's lame son were drafted and were killed in battle. The village people were amazed as Sei Weng's good luck. His son was the only young man left alive in the village. But Sei Weng kept his same attitude: despite all the turmoil, gains and losses, he gave the same reply, "That's the way it is."

As told by Chin-Ning Chu, in "The Asian Mind Game: unlocking the hidden agenda of the Asian business culture -- a westerner's survival manual," New York:Macmillan Publishing Company, page 182. (1991)

Version 3:

A man who lived on the northern frontier of China was skilled in interpreting events. One day, for no reason, his horse ran away to the nomads across the border. Everyone tried to console him, but his father said, "What makes you so sure this isn't a blessing?" Some months later his horse returned, bringing a splendid nomad stallion. Everyone congratulated him, but his father said, "What makes you so sure this isn't a disaster?" Their household was richer by a fine horse, which his son loved to ride. One day he fell and broke his hip. Everyone tried to console him, but his father said, "What makes you so sure this isn't a blessing?"

A year later the nomads came in force across the border, and every able-bodied man took his bow and went into battle. The Chinese frontiersmen lost nine of every ten men. Only because the son was lame did the father and son survive to take care of each other. Truly, blessing turns to disaster, and disaster to blessing: the changes have no end, nor can the mystery be fathomed.

The Lost Horse,
Chinese Folktale.

As told by Ellen J. Langer, in" The Power of Mindful Learning," Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley, page 99-100. (1997).

Version 4:

Huainanzi - Daoist Farmer
近塞上之人有善術者，馬無故亡而入胡，人皆弔之。其父曰：「此何遽不為福乎！」居數月，其馬將胡駿馬而歸，人皆賀之。其父曰：「此何遽不能為禍乎！」家富良馬，其子好騎，墮而折其髀，人皆弔之。其父曰：「此何遽不為福乎！」居一年，胡人大入塞，丁壯者引弦而戰，近塞之人，死者十九，此獨以跛之故，父子相保。故福之為禍，禍之為福，化不可極，深不可測也。

Among the people who lived close to the border, there was a man who led a righteous life. Without reason, his horse escaped, and fled into barbarian territory. Everyone pitied him, but the old man said : "what makes you think this is not a good thing?"

Several months later, his horse returned, accompanied by a superb barbarian stallion. Everyone congratulated him. But the old man said: "what makes you think this is cannot be a bad thing?"

The family was richer from a good horse, his son enjoyed riding it. He fell and broke his hip. Everyone pitied him, but the old man said: "what makes you think this is not a good thing!"
One year later, a large party of barbarians entered the border. All the valid men drew their bows and went to battle. From the people living around the border, nine out of ten died. But just because he was lame, the old man and his son were both spared.



Version 6:

THE KING AND HIS FRIEND

An African king had a close friend who had the habit of remarking "this
is good" about every occurrence in life no matter what it was. One day
the king and his friend were out hunting. The king's friend loaded a
gun and handed it to the king, but alas he loaded it wrong and when the
king fired it, his thumb was blown off.

"This is good!" exclaimed his friend.

The horrified and bleeding king was furious. "How can you say this is
good? This is obviously horrible!" he shouted.

The king put his friend in jail.

About a year later the king went hunting by himself. Cannibals captured him and took him to their village. They tied his hands, stacked some wood, set up a stake and bound him to it. As they came near to set fire to the wood, they noticed that the king was missing a thumb. Being

superstitious, they never ate anyone who was less than whole. They untied the king and sent him on his way.

Full of remorse the king rushed to the prison to release his friend.

"You were right, it WAS good" the king said.

The king told his friend how the missing thumb saved his life and added, "I feel so sad that I locked you in jail.That was such a bad thing to do"

"NO! this is good!" responded his delighted friend.

"Oh, how could that be good my friend, I did a terrible thing to you while I
owe you my life".

"It is good" said his friend, "because if I wasn't in jail I would have been hunting with you and they would have killed ME."

Source unknown

Version 7:

Taoist Farmer stories are based on the Chinese belief that life has its ups and downs, and does not always go up. Click on the following link to read a story I wrote about the ups and downs in the lives of some chickens, and one eccentric chicken's interpretation of whether the farmer that feeds them is good or bad.

Here is another related tidbit: When Communist era Premier Chou En-Lai was asked whether or not the French revolution was good or bad, his response was "It's too early to tell." (From "The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently...and Why," by Richard E. Nisbett, NY:Simon and Schuster, 2003, page 13). When I first read this, I couldn't stop laughing!

Version 8:

Three Questions
a short story by Leo Tolstoy, has a similar flavor.
From "Twenty-three Tales "published around 1872. This version, translated by L. and A. Maude. 

and published by Funk & Wagnalls Company, New York, 1907. Other adaptations: 1, 2, 3
IT once occurred to a certain king, that if he always knew the right time to begin everything; if he knew who were the right people to listen to, and whom to avoid, and, above all, if he always knew what was the most important thing to do, he would never fail in anything he might undertake.

And this thought having occurred to him, he had it proclaimed throughout his kingdom that he would give a great reward to any one who would teach him what was the right time for every action, and who were the most necessary people, and how he might know what was the most important thing to do.

And learned men came to the King, but they all answered his questions differently.
In reply to the first question, some said that to know the right time for every action, one must draw up in advance, a table of days, months and years, and must live strictly according to it. Only thus, said they, could everything be done at its proper time. Others declared that it was impossible to decide beforehand the right time for every action; but that, not letting oneself be absorbed in idle pastimes, one should always attend to all that was going on, and then do what was most needful. Others, again, said that however attentive the King might be to what was going on, it was impossible for one man to decide correctly the right time for every action, but that he should have a Council of wise men, who would help him to fix the proper time for everything.

But then again others said there were some things which could not wait to be laid before a Council, but about which one had at once to decide whether to undertake them or not. But in order to decide that one must know beforehand what was going to happen. It is only magicians who know that; and, therefore in order to know the right time for every action, one must consult magicians.

Equally various were the answers to the second question. Some said, the people the King most needed were his councillors; others, the priests; others, the doctors; while some said the warriors were the most necessary.

To the third question, as to what was the most important occupation: some replied that the most important thing in the world was science. Others said it was skill in warfare; and others, again, that it was religious worship.

All the answers being different, the King agreed with none of them, and gave the reward to none. But still wishing to find the right answers to his questions, he decided to consult a hermit, widely renowned for his wisdom.

The hermit lived in a wood which he never quitted and he received none but common folk. So the King put on simple clothes, and before reaching the hermit's cell dismounted from his horse, and, leaving his bodyguard behind, went on alone.

When the King approached, the hermit was digging the ground in front of his hut. Seeing the King, he greeted him and went on digging. The hermit was frail and weak, and each time he stuck his spade into the ground and turned a little earth, he breathed heavily.

The King went up to him and said: 'I have come to you, wise hermit, to ask you to answer three questions: How can I learn to do the right thing at the right time? Who are the people I most need, and to whom should I, therefore, pay more attention than to the rest? And, what affairs are the most important and need my first attention?' The hermit listened to the King, but answered nothing. He just spat on his hand and recommenced digging.

'You are tired,' said the King, 'let me take the spade and work awhile for you.'

'Thanks!' said the hermit, and, giving the spade to the King, he sat down on the ground.

When he had dug two beds, the King stopped and repeated his questions. The hermit again gave no answer, but rose, stretched out his hand for the spade, and said:

'Now rest awhile -- and let me work a bit.'

But the King did not give him the spade, and continued to dig. One hour passed, and another. The sun began to sink behind the trees, and the King at last stuck the spade into the ground, and said:

'I came to you, wise man, for an answer to my questions. If you can give me none, tell me so, and I will return home.'

'Here comes some one running,' said the hermit, 'let us see who it is.'

The King turned round, and saw a bearded man come running out of the wood. The man held his hands pressed against his stomach, and blood was flowing from under them. When he reached the King, he fell fainting on the ground moaning feebly. The King and the hermit unfastened the man's clothing. There was a large wound in his stomach. The King washed it as best he could, and bandaged it with his handkerchief and with a towel the hermit had. But the blood would not stop flowing, and the King again and again removed the bandage soaked with warm blood, and washed and rebandaged the wound. When at last the blood ceased flowing, the man revived and asked for something to drink. The King brought fresh water and gave it to him. Meanwhile the sun had set, and it had become cool. So the King, with the hermit's help, carried the wounded man into the hut and laid him on the bed. Lying on the bed the man closed his eyes and was quiet; but the King was so tired with his walk and with the work he had done, that he crouched down on the threshold, and also fell asleep -- so soundly that he slept all through the short summer night. When he awoke in the morning, it was long before he could remember where he was, or who was the strange bearded man lying on the bed and gazing intently at him with shining eyes.

'Forgive me!' said the bearded man in a weak voice, when he saw that the King was awake and was looking at him.

'I do not know you, and have nothing to forgive you for,' said the King.

'You do not know me, but I know you. I am that enemy of yours who swore to revenge himself on you, because you executed his brother and seized his property. I knew you had gone alone to see the hermit, and I resolved to kill you on your way back. But the day passed and you did not return. So I came out from my ambush to find you, and I came upon your bodyguard, and they recognized me, and wounded me. I escaped from them, but should have bled to death had you not dressed my wound. I wished to kill you, and you have saved my life. Now, if I live, and if you wish it, I will serve you as your most faithful slave, and will bid my sons do the same. Forgive me!'

The King was very glad to have made peace with his enemy so easily, and to have gained him for a friend, and he not only forgave him, but said he would send his servants and his own physician to attend him, and promised to restore his property.

Having taken leave of the wounded man, the King went out into the porch and looked around for the hermit. Before going away he wished once more to beg an answer to the questions he had put. The hermit was outside, on his knees, sowing seeds in the beds that had been dug the day before.

The King approached him, and said:

'For the last time, I pray you to answer my questions, wise man.'

'You have already been answered!' said the hermit still crouching on his thin legs, and looking up at the King, who stood before him.

'How answered? What do you mean?' asked the King.

'Do you not see,' replied the hermit. 'If you had not pitied my weakness yesterday, and had not dug these beds for me, but had gone your way, that man would have attacked you, and you would have repented of not having stayed with me. So the most important time was when you were digging the beds; and I was the most important man; and to do me good was your most important business. Afterwards, when that man ran to us, the most important time was when you were attending to him, for if you had not bound up his wounds he would have died without having made peace with you. So he was the most important man, and what you did for him was your most important business. Remember then: there is only one time that is important -- Now! It is the most important time because it is the only time when we have any power. The most necessary man is he with whom you are, for no man knows whether he will ever have dealings with any one else: and the most important affair is, to do him good, because for that purpose alone was man sent into this life!'
1903.

(Source: http://www.noogenesis.com/pineapple/Taoist_Farmer.html)

The Group of Seven (G7) and Brazil, Russia, India And China - BRIC

The Group of Seven (G7) 

by Zachary Laub

Introduction

The Group of Seven (G7) is an informal bloc of industrialized democracies—France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, and Canada—that meets annually to discuss issues of common interest like global economic governance, international security, and energy policy. Proponents say the forum's small and relatively homogenous membership promotes collective decision-making, but critics note that it often lacks follow-through and that its membership excludes important emerging powers. Russia belonged to the forum from 1998 through 2014—then the Group of Eight (G8)—but the other members suspended their cooperation with Moscow after its annexation of Crimea in March of that year.

Membership

France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States formed the Group of Six in 1975 (Canada joined the following year) to provide a venue for the noncommunist powers to address pressing economic concerns, which at the time included inflation and a recession sparked by the OPEC oil embargo. Cold War politics invariably entered the group's agenda.

The European Union has participated fully in the G7 since 1981 as a "nonenumerated" member. It is represented by the presidents of the European Council, which represents the EU member-states' leaders, and the European Commission, the EU's executive body.

There are no formal criteria for membership, but participants are all highly developed democracies. The aggregate GDP of G7 member states makes up nearly 50 percent of the global economy.

Unlike the United Nations or NATO, the G7 is not a formal institution with a charter and a secretariat. Instead, the presidency, which rotates annually among member states, is responsible for setting the agenda and arranging logistics. Ministers and envoys, known as sherpas, hammer out policy initiatives at meetings that precede the annual summit of national leaders.

(Source: The Group of Seven (G7) by Zachary Laub, http://www.cfr.org/staff/b19316)

Brazil, Russia, India And China - BRIC

An acronym for the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China combined. The general consensus is that the term was first prominently used in a Goldman Sachs report from 2003, which speculated that by 2050 these four economies would be wealthier than most of the current major economic powers. 

The BRIC thesis posits that China and India will become the world's dominant suppliers of manufactured goods and services, respectively, while Brazil and Russia will become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. It's important to note that the Goldman Sachs thesis isn't that these countries are a political alliance (like the European Union) or a formal trading association - but they have the potential to form a powerful economic bloc. BRIC is now also used as a more generic marketing term to refer to these four emerging economies. 

Due to lower labor and production costs, many companies also cite BRIC as a source of foreign expansion opportunity. 

(Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bric.asp)

BRIC Countries’ Path to 2050

A country’s population and demographics, among other factors, directly affect the potential size of its economy and its capacity to function as an engine of global economic growth and development. As early as 2003, Goldman Sachs forecasted that China and India would become the first and third largest economies by 2050, with Brazil and Russia capturing the fifth and sixth spots. The chart below shows a more recent forecast of the world ranking of the biggest economies in the year 2050.  (Click on the image below to view the full-size chart in a separate tab or browser window.)

One BRIC, Two BRICs

The BRIC designation was first coined by Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs in a 2001 paper titled “The World Needs Better Economic BRICs.”  The BRIC countries have since gone on to meet and seek out opportunities for cooperation in trade, investment, infrastructure development and other arenas. China invited South Africa to join the group of BRIC nations in December, 2010 and hosted the third annual BRICs Summit in April, 2011.

Key Indicators and Statistics

Economic Growth and Development of the BRICs

From 2000 to 2008, the BRIC countries’ combined share of total world economic output rose from 16 to 22 percent. Together, the BRIC countries accounted for 30 percent of the increase in global output during the period.

To date, the scale of China’s economy and pace of its development has out-distanced those of its BRIC peers. China alone contributed more than half of the BRIC countries’ share and greater than 15 percent of the growth in world economic output from 2000 to 2008. The chart above on key development indicators for the BRIC countries shows the sharp contrast in GDP, merchandise exports and the UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI) between China and the other BRIC countries.

Growing BRIC Middle Class

The rapid economic growth and demographics of China and India are expected to give rise to a large middle class whose consumption would help drive the BRICs’ economic development and expansion of the global economy.  The charts below depict how the increase in the middle class population of the BRIC countries is forecasted to more than double that of the developed G7 economies.  (Click on the images below to view the full-size charts in separate tabs or browser windows.)

 

Science and Technology in the BRICs

The BRIC countries of China, India and Brazil account for much of the dramatic increase inscience research investments and scientific publications. Since 2002, global spending on science R&D has increased by 45 percent to more than $1,000 billion (one trillion) U.S. dollars. From 2002 to 2007, China, India and Brazil more than doubled their spending on science research, raising their collective share of global R&D spending from 17 to 24 percent.

China’s development planning has targeted a number of scientific fields and related industries, including clean energy, green transportation and rare earths, among others. Since 1999, China’s spending on science R&D has grown 20 percent annually to more than $100 billion. By 2020, China plans to invest 2.5 percent of GDP in science research.

(Source: BRIC Countries – Background, Latest News, Statistics and Original Articles, http://www.globalsherpa.org/bric-countries-brics)

The Next Eleven (known also by the numeronym N-11)

The Next Eleven, known also as N-11, is a term coined by Goldman Sachs in late-2005 to represent the eleven countries it thought could potentially have a BRIC-like impact in rivaling in the G7 nations. While these countries remain distant to the G7 and even BRIC nations, the investment bank insisted that the foundation was in place. (Source: http://internationalinvest.about.com/od/gettingstarted/a/What-Are-The-Next-Eleven.htm)

Many analysts and commentators have suggested expanding the original group of four BRIC nations to include other emerging markets. Goldman Sachs has resisted conferring BRIC status on other developing countries on the grounds that their demographics and economic characteristics do not hold the potential for them to rival the economic size or influence of the BRIC countries or today’s leading economies (e.g., U.S. and Japan).

In a nod to the interest in other emerging markets, Goldman Sachs identified another group of economically dynamic and promising developing countries creatively labeled the “Next 11” in its 2005 Economics Paper No. 134 “How Solid are the BRICs?” The Next 11 consists of a broader group of emerging markets with the potential to play significant roles in the global economy. 

(Source: http://www.globalsherpa.org/bric-countries-brics)

The N-11 consists of Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam. But, the majority of the group's gross domestic product (GDP) lies in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.

Next Eleven Growth Prospects

International investors are primarily interested in the Next Eleven for their investment merits, which are driven primarily by economic growth. Growth rates have generally risen across the group, despite the 2008 economic crisis, while dispersion in growth remains at relatively low levels, suggesting that the countries' economic performance has been stable.

These growth rates are most attractive when compared to the G7 nations, since their economies tend to be growing at a slower rate. In 2005, Goldman Sachs estimated that the N-11 could reach two-thirds of the size of the G7 economies by 2050. Given the setback experienced among developed nations during the 2008 financial crisis, this timetable could even accelerate.

Some of the fastest growing economies in the region by real GDP in 2011 include:

• Turkey - 8.5%
• Nigeria - 6.9%
• Indonesia - 6.4%
• Bangladesh - 6.3%
• Philippines - 4.7%

Investing in the Next Eleven

International investors looking to invest in Next Eleven economies have many different options, ranging from mutual funds to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In general, the ETFs represent the easiest way to invest in N-11 economies given their targeted exposure and instant diversification in a single security traded on a U.S. stock exchange.

Some popular ETFs include:

• Market Vectors Egypt Index (EGPT)
• Market Vectors Indonesia Index (IDX)
• iShares MSCI South Korea Index (EWY)
• iShares MSCI Mexico Index (EWW)
• Market Vectors Africa Index (AFK)
• Market Vectors Vietnam Index (VNM)
• iShares MSCI Philippines Index (EPHE)
• iShares MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)

Notably, many of the N-11 economies do not have ETFs associated with them and may be difficult to easily invest in from the U.S. Others may offer some exposure through broad regional ETFs, but may be difficult to pinpoint with specific ETFs.

Investors looking for exposure in countries not covered by ETFs may want to consider American Depository Receipts (ADRs). These securities track foreign corporations, but trade on U.S. stock exchanges, making them a great way to build exposure. But investors should be aware that many ADRs have a high liquidity risk relative to traditional U.S. stocks.

Finally, investors should keep some key points in mind when investing in the N-11:

• Geographical Diversification. The N-11 spans Europe, Latin America, Africa, South-East Asia, and the Middle East, making it a very geographically diverse index for investors.
• Wide Variety of Development. The N-11 encompasses countries ranging from the highly developed South Korea to the very poor country of Bangladesh.
• Political Risk in Some Components. The N-11 includes some countries with a lot of political risk, including countries like Pakistan that can prove volatile.

Key Points to Remember

• The Next Eleven, known also as N-11, is a term coined by Goldman Sachs in late-2005 to represent the eleven countries with strong growth potential.
• The largest components of the N-11 are Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey, which represent the majority of the group's GDP.
• The easiest way to invest in the N-11 is using ETFs or ADRs targeting the individual countries within the group, but investors should be aware of the risks.

(Source: What are the Next Eleven? Goldman Sachs' Up-and-coming Economic Giants by Justin Kuepper, http://internationalinvest.about.com/od/gettingstarted/a/What-Are-The-Next-Eleven.htm)

Next-11 Emerging Markets

The two-speed recovery has been confirmed as an enduring reality for businesses around the world. For many industries, it has become clear that the vast majority of growth in the near to medium term will occur within emerging markets, and that the companies that compete in them need to be there in order to participate in that growth.

The increasing importance of emerging markets in the global economic landscape is no longer a futuristic idea but a measurable fact. As a consequence, investors are realizing the importance of keeping up to date on emerging markets’ key developments so as to find the right opportunities. Given the sheer number of countries under the label “emerging market”, it seems necessary to narrow down the list to a number of key economies.

Several groupings of countries have been coined so far, the most widely known being Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). While path-breaking when coined, the concept of BRIC seems outdated today given increase growth differential among the four countries involved. Furthermore, it seems difficult for the group to be revising membership any time soon as it is not based on objective criteria. This is the same problem that the G7 and G10 have suffered from for many years.

The Next 11 countries are Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. Although varied both geographically and economically, these 11 countries have features in common that are believed to single out their high economic potential:

• All have large and growing populations. Between 1980 and 2008, population growth was highest in Pakistan at 110.8%, with the lowest being in South Korea, with 28.4% period growth

• Of the N-11 countries, Indonesia had the largest population, with 228.9 million people, while South Korea had the smallest at 47.6 million

• Mexico had the highest sum of private final consumption expenditure, totaling US$567 billion. Vietnam had the lowest, at US$36.8 billion

• All 11 countries demonstrate population growth rates above those of Western developed economies, indicating greater consumer market potential over the medium term. Large populations represent a wide potential pool of consumers for businesses to target, while high growth rates mean that this market will expand rapidly, providing proportionally more potential customers

Sustained strong economic growth in the N-11 countries is creating new consumer markets that can be targeted by businesses. However, differences in levels of growth mean that some higher-growth countries may prove more profitable for businesses.

Targeting differences

• While the N-11 countries share certain characteristics, they are not at the same level of economic development so consumer-focused businesses must target these markets in different ways:

• The N-11 countries can be categorized in two different ways: developing economies and newly industrialized economies. These are both ‘emerging economies’, but the latter have greater industrial capacity and are typically beginning to export heavy manufactured or refined products, while the former are still largely reliant on primary exports, with some industrial capacity. Typically, developing economies have lower standards of living than newly industrialized economies

• Of the N-11 countries, Bangladesh, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam can be categorized as developing economies, while all the others except South Korea can be categorized as newly industrialized economies. South Korea is the only N-11 economy that could be categorized as a developed economy, owing to its high level of industrialization and relatively stable macroeconomic fundamentals

• For example, South Korea is a predominantly technological state, exporting manufactured goods and services expertise. By contrast, Bangladesh is an exporter of primary goods while Nigeria is an oil exporter and an exporter of lower-level manufactured goods

• Sales of high-end consumer goods are therefore likely to be higher in a higher income country such as South Korea, while a lower income N-11 state may be more suitable for targeting more basic consumer durables

Consumer incomes in N-11 countries are not necessarily comparable, but are at different levels and will grow by varying rates in the long term. This allows international businesses to target these markets for different products.

N-11 business environments

• The N-11 countries are also different in their business environments, affecting their relative attractiveness as an investment destination:

South Korea was ranked 30th out of 178 countries in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business survey, the highest of the N-11 countries. This is due to its well-regulated tax and investment code, heavily influenced by the US model, and the adherence of state and financial institutions to this code

• Iran is ranked the lowest at 135th. This reflects its authoritarian state-owned business environment, which in many cases actively deters foreign investors. In other cases, the regulatory environment is opaque and arbitrary, offering few incentives for investment

• Turkey received the greatest amount of foreign direct investment of the N-11 countries. This reflected its unique role as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East, and its consequent position as an export and re-export hub

• By contrast, Iran received the least foreign direct investment, at US$901 million, indicating its investor unfriendly business environment and also the economic sanctions imposed on it by the USA

Business environment is a major contributing factor for potential growth, since investors can easily choose to invest elsewhere if operating environments are too difficult, restricting the potential for wage and job growth in those countries.

Future scenarios

Both domestic and international factors will affect growth prospects for the N-11 countries going forward:

• Demand from key export markets will determine economic growth. For the N-11 countries, the USA and China are the main export markets. Although US GDP growth is forecast to reach only 1.9% year-on-year in 2008 owing to ongoing concerns about poor credit, China’s economy will grow by 10%

• Those countries that are most stable – whether via democracy or dictatorship – will have better prospects for consistent growth. These include South Korea, Vietnam and Mexico.

• A key factor for Iran will be the continuation of economic sanctions by the USA, which would curtail growth

But simply relying on past approaches used to expand into other developed markets is not sufficient; companies need to define an emerging market entry strategy and operating model that links directly to their long-term corporate strategy and is tailored to handle the different success drivers and unique characteristics of each market. While the specifics will vary both by industry and country, what follows are several key general considerations for successful emerging market entry.

(Source: Next-11 Emerging Markets, http://next11.se/next-11-emerging-markets/)

Redundant Phrases to Avoid

In conversation, it’s easy in the midst of spontaneous speech to succumb to verbosity and duplication. In writing, redundancy is less forgivable but fortunately easy to rectify. Watch out for these usual suspects:

1. Absolutely certain or sure/essential/guaranteed: Someone who is certain or sure is already without doubt. Something that is essential is intrinsically absolute. A guarantee is by nature absolute (or should be). Abandon absolutely in such usage.

2. Actual experience/fact: An experience is something that occurred (unless otherwise indicated). A fact is something confirmed to have happened. Actual is extraneous in these instances.

3. Add an additional: To add is to provide another of something. Additional is extraneous.

4. Added bonus: A bonus is an extra feature, so added is redundant.

5. Advance notice/planning/reservations/warning: Notices, planning, reservations, and warnings are all, by their nature, actions that occur before some event, so qualifying such terms with advance is superfluous.

6. As for example: As implies that an example is being provided, so omit “an example.”

7. Ask a question: To ask is to pose a question, so question is redundant.

8. At the present time: “At present” means “at this time,” so avoid the verbose version.

9. Basic fundamentals/essentials: Fundamentals and essentials are by their nature elementary, so remove basic from each phrase.

10. (Filled to) capacity: Something filled is done so to capacity, so describing something as “filled to capacity” is repetitive.

11. Came at a time when: When provides the necessary temporal reference to the action of coming; “at a time” is redundant.

12. Close proximity/scrutiny: Proximity means “close in location,” and scrutiny means “close study,” so avoid qualifying these terms with close.

13. Collaborate/join/meet/merge together: If you write of a group that collaborates or meets together, you imply that there’s another way to collect or confer. To speak of joining or merging together is, likewise, redundant.

14. Completely filled/finished/opposite: Something that is filled or finished is thoroughly so;completely is redundant. Something that is opposite isn’t necessarily diametrically opposed, especially in qualitative connotations, but the modifier is still extraneous.

15. Consensus of opinion: A consensus is an agreement but not necessarily one about an opinion, so “consensus of opinion” is not purely redundant, but the phrase “of opinion” is usually unnecessary.

16. (During the) course (of): During means “in or throughout the duration of”), so “during the course of” is repetitive.

17. Definite decision: Decisions may not be final, but when they are made, they are unequivocal and therefore definite, so one should not be described as “a definite decision.”

18. Difficult dilemma: A dilemma is by nature complicated, so omit difficult as a modifier.

19. Direct confrontation: A confrontation is a head-on conflict. Direct as a qualifier in this case is redundant.

20. End result: A result is something that occurs at the end, so omit end as a modifier of result.

21. Enter in: To enter is to go in, so throw in out.

22. Estimated at about/roughly: An estimate is an approximation. About and roughly are superfluous.

23. False pretense: A pretense is a deception, so false is redundant.

24. Few in number: Few refers to a small number; do not qualify few with the modifier “in number.”

25. Final outcome: An outcome is a result and is therefore intrinsically final.

26. First began, new beginning: A beginning is when something first occurs, so first and neware superfluous terms in these cases.

27. For a period/number of days: Days is plural, so a duration is implied; “a period of” or “a number of” is redundant. It’s better to specify the number of days or to generalize with many.

28. Foreign imports: Imports are products that originate in another country, so their foreign nature is implicit and the word foreign is redundant.

29. Forever and ever: Ever is an unnecessary reduplication of forever.

30. Free gift: A gift is by definition free (though cynics will dispute that definition), so free is extraneous.

31. Invited guests: Guests are intrinsically those who have an invitation, so invited is redundant.

32. Major breakthrough: A breakthrough is a significant progress in an effort. Though major is not directly redundant, the notable nature of the event is implicit.

33. [Number] a.m. in the morning/p.m. in the evening: The abbreviations a.m. and p.m. already identify the time of day, so omit “in the morning” or “in the evening.”

34. Past history/record: A history is by definition a record of past occurrences, and a record is documentation of what has already happened. In both cases, past is redundant.

35. Plan ahead: To plan is to prepare for the future. Ahead is extraneous.

36. Possibly might: Might indicates probability, so omit the redundant qualifier possibly.

37. Postpone until later: To postpone is to delay. Later is superfluous.

38. Protest against: To protest is to communicate opposition. Against is redundant.

39. Repeat again: To repeat is to reiterate an action, so again is unnecessary.

40. Revert back: Something that reverts returns to an earlier state. Back is superfluous.

41. Same identical: Same and identical are just that (and that). Omit same as a qualifier for identical.

42. Since the time when: Since indicates a time in the past; “the time when” is superfluous.

43. Spell out in detail: To spell out is to provide details, so “in detail” is repetitive.

44. Still remains: Something that remains is still in place. Still is redundant.

45. Suddenly exploded: An explosion is an immediate event. It cannot be any more sudden than it is.

46. Therapeutic treatment: Treatment in the sense of medical care is by nature therapeutic, so the adjective is redundant.

47. Unexpected surprise: No surprise is expected, so the modifier is extraneous.

48. Unintended mistake: A mistake is an inadvertently erroneous action. The lack of intention is implicit.

49. Usual custom: A custom is something routinely and repeatedly done or observed, andusual is redundant.

50. Written down: Something written has been taken down. Down is superfluous.

(Source: 50 Redundant Phrases to Avoid by Mark Nichol, http://www.dailywritingtips.com/50-redundant-phrases-to-avoid/)

1. 12 mid­night (midnight)
2. 12 noon (noon) 
3. Both of them (both)
4. Crystal clear (clear)
5. Exact same (exact or same)
6. Inasmuch as (since, because)
7. There is no doubt that (how about “clearly”?)
8. Until such time as (until)

(Source: Judy Vorfeld, http://editingandwritingservices.com/redundant-words-phrases/)

A

• (absolutely) essential
• (absolutely) necessary
• (actual) facts
• advance (forward)
• (advance) planning
• (advance) preview
• (advance) reservations
• (advance) warning
• add (an additional)
• add (up)
• (added) bonus
• (affirmative) yes
• (aid and) abet
• (all-time) record
• alternative (choice)
• A.M. (in the morning)
• (and) etc.
• (anonymous) stranger
• (annual) anniversary
• (armed) gunman
• (artificial) prosthesis
• ascend (up)
• ask (the question)
• assemble (together)
• attach (together)
• ATM (machine)
• autobiography (of his or her own life)

B

• bald(-headed)
• balsa (wood)
• (basic) fundamentals
• (basic) necessities
• best (ever)
• biography (of his--or her--life)
• blend (together)
• (boat) marina
• bouquet (of flowers)
• brief (in duration)
• (brief) moment
• (brief) summary
• (burning) embers

C

• • cacophony (of sound)
  • cameo (appearance)
  • cancel (out)
  • (careful) scrutiny
  • cash (money)
  • cease (and desist)
  • circle (around)
  • circulate (around)
  • classify (into groups)
  • (close) proximity
  • (closed) fist
  • collaborate (together)
  • combine (together)
  • commute (back and forth)
  • compete (with each other)
  • (completely) annihilate
  • (completely) destroyed
  • (completely) eliminate
  • (completely) engulfed
  • (completely) filled
  • (completely) surround
  • (component) parts
  • confer (together)
  • connect (together)
  • connect (up)
  • confused (state)
  • consensus (of opinion)
  • (constantly) maintained
  • cooperate (together)
  • could (possibly)
  • crisis (situation)
  • curative (process)
  • (current) incumbent
  • (current) trend

D

• • depreciate (in value)
  • descend (down)
  • (desirable) benefits
  • (different) kinds
  • disappear (from sight)
  • drop (down)
  • during (the course of)
  • dwindle (down)

E

• each (and every)
• earlier (in time)
• eliminate (altogether)
• emergency (situation)
• (empty) hole
• empty (out)
• (empty) space
• enclosed (herein)
• (end) result
• enter (in)
• (entirely) eliminate
• equal (to one another)
• eradicate (completely)
• estimated at (about)
• evolve (over time)
• (exact) same
• (exposed) opening
• extradite (back)

F

• (face) mask
• fall (down)
• (favorable) approval
• (fellow) classmates
• (fellow) colleague
• few (in number)
• filled (to capacity)
• (final) conclusion
• (final) end
• (final) outcome
• (final) ultimatum
• (first and) foremost
• (first) conceived
• first (of all)
• fly (through the air)
• follow (after)
• (foreign) imports
• (former) graduate
• (former) veteran
• (free) gift
• (from) whence
• (frozen) ice
• (frozen) tundra
• full (to capacity)
• (full) satisfaction
• fuse (together)
• (future) plans
• (future) recurrence

G

• gather (together)
• (general) public
• GOP (party)
• GRE (exam)
• green [or blue or whatever] (in color)
• grow (in size)

H

• had done (previously)
• (harmful) injuries
• (head) honcho
• heat (up)
• HIV (virus)
• hoist (up)
• (hollow) tube
• hurry (up)

I

• (illustrated) drawing
• incredible (to believe)
• indicted (on a charge)
• input (into)
• integrate (together)
• integrate (with each other)
• interdependent (on each other)
• introduced (a new)
• introduced (for the first time)
• (ir)regardless
• ISBN (number)

J

• join (together)
• (joint) collaboration

K

• kneel (down)
• (knowledgeable) experts

L

• lag (behind)
• later (time)
• LCD (display)
• lift (up)
• (little) baby
• (live) studio audience
• (live) witness
• (local) residents
• look (ahead) to the future
• look back (in retrospect)

M

• made (out) of
• (major) breakthrough
• (major) feat
• manually (by hand)
• may (possibly)
• meet (together)
• meet (with each other)
• (mental) telepathy
• merge (together)
• might (possibly)
• minestrone (soup)
• mix (together)
• modern ______ (of today)
• (mutual) cooperation
• (mutually) interdependent
• mutual respect (for each other)
• (number-one) leader in ________

N

• nape (of her neck)
• (native) habitat
• (natural) instinct
• never (before)
• (new) beginning
• (new) construction
• (new) innovation
• (new) invention
• (new) recruit
• none (at all)
• nostalgia (for the past)
• (now) pending

O

• off (of)
• (old) adage
• (old) cliche
• (old) custom
• (old) proverb
• (open) trench
• open (up)
• (oral) conversation
• (originally) created
• output (out of)
• (outside) in the yard
• outside (of)
• (over) exaggerate
• over (with)
• (overused) cliche

P

• (pair of) twins

• palm (of the hand)
• (passing) fad
• (past) experience
• (past) history
• (past) memories
• (past) records
• penetrate (into)
• period (of time)
• (personal) friend
• (personal) opinion
• pick (and choose)
• PIN (number)
• pizza (pie)
• plan (ahead)
• plan (in advance)
• (Please) RSVP
• plunge (down)
• (polar) opposites
• (positive) identification
• postpone (until later)
• pouring (down) rain
• (pre)board (as an airplane)
• (pre)heat
• (pre)record
• (private) industry
• (present) incumbent
• present (time)
• previously listed (above)
• proceed (ahead)
• (proposed) plan
• protest (against)
• pursue (after)

R

• raise (up)
• RAM (memory)
• reason is (because)
• reason (why)
• recur (again)
• re-elect (for another term)
• refer (back)
• reflect (back)
• (regular) routine
• repeat (again)
• reply (back)
• retreat (back)
• revert (back)
• rise (up)
• round (in shape)

S

• (safe) haven
• (safe) sanctuary
• same (exact)
• (sand) dune
• scrutinize (in detail)
• self-______ (yourself)
• separated (apart from each other)
• (serious) danger
• share (together)
• (sharp) point
• shiny (in appearance)
• shut (down)
• (single) unit
• skipped (over)
• slow (speed)
• small (size)
• (small) speck
• soft (in texture) [or (to the touch)]
• sole (of the foot)
• spell out (in detail)
• spliced (together)
• start (off) or (out)
• (still) persists
• (still) remains
• (sudden) impulse
• (sum) total
• surrounded (on all sides)

T

• tall (in height)
• tall (in stature)
• (temper) tantrum
• ten (in number)
• three a.m. (in the morning)
• (three-way) love triangle
• time (period)
• (tiny) bit
• (total) destruction
• (true) facts
• (truly) sincere
• tuna (fish)
• (twelve) noon or midnight
• (two equal) halves

U

• (ultimate) goal
• undergraduate (student)
• (underground) subway
• (unexpected) emergency
• (unexpected) surprise
• (unintentional) mistake
• (universal) panacea
• (unnamed) anonymous
• UPC (code)
• (usual) custom

V

• • vacillate (back and forth)
  • (veiled) ambush
  • (very) pregnant
  • (very) unique
  • visible (to the eye)

W

• (wall) mural
• warn (in advance)
• weather (conditions)
• weather (situation)
• whether (or not)
• (white) snow
• write (down)

(Source: 200 Common Redundancies by Richard Nordquist,  
http://grammar.about.com/od/words/a/redundancies.htm)